For decades, artificial intelligence has been hailed as the great equalizer for humanity. It is what would finally liberate us from our menial tasks and bring us into a golden age of productivity.
But for many workers, it feels like they are simply waiting for the inevitable as they watch the rise of artificial intelligence.
A just-released report out of the office of U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders takes this fear to the next level. It indicates that automation could threaten approximately 100 million jobs in America alone.
These could include teachers, nurses, accountants, and even truck drivers. But it’s fast food workers who have the worst prognosis. An estimated 90 percent of their jobs could disappear. Not exactly the promised nirvana of Silicon Valley.
With such a forecast in mind, you would think the safest place to be is in the world of technology: coding, designing, and maintaining the systems that facilitate such a transition. Think again.
NVIDIA Taiwan, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia CommonsSilicon Valley’s Kingmaker Points to Somewhere Else
During a recent interview with “Channel 4 News UK,” Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang had a message for young technology buffs that left them startled:
“The jobs that will actually win the AI race aren’t in Silicon Valley. They’re in the trades. Electricians, plumbers, and carpenters, those are the people who will benefit the most,” Huang said.
While Nvidia’s processors drive the AI models that hit the headlines, the actual groundwork for this technology revolution is a physically intensive one. Data centers, massive and power-sucking buildings, have to be erected and maintained by human effort.
A 250,000 square-foot data center alone requires 1,500 trade-skill workers for construction. Multiply it by thousands of such data centers worldwide, and one can just imagine the economic ramifications.
It is estimated that total capital expenditure on AI data centers will touch the $7 trillion mark in 2030.
A Labor Gap That No Algorithm Can Fill
All this growth precipitates one uncomfortable question: How is the future of AI going to be built?
Larry Fink of BlackRock is already sounding the alarm with regard to the lack of qualified trade workers. For decades, the cultural mantra has been to encourage young Americans to earn four-year college degrees and to look at trade skills as second-class alternatives.
Perhaps the tide is finally turning. A report released by the Jobber indicates that 77 percent of Generation Z want to have jobs that can’t be automated.
Vocational school attendance is up 12 percent, a pace that easily outstrips the 4 percent increase at universities. Call it a pragmatic switch or simply sound risk management. Either way, the wrench is back.
A Future Crafted By Hand
Although there is a fear that AI will trample the job market, data obtained by Yale’s Budget Lab indicates that the disruption is not yet at hand.
The truth is not that simple. It is not reducing employment completely; it is merely shaking up the balance of power. In the ensuing ordering of employment-proof jobs, blue-collar jobs have been declared the surprise winners.
The next chapter of the AI boom will not be written in terms of who codes the best algorithm or who can hire and retain the smartest engineers.
It will be determined instead by who can wire their server racks the best, their cooling systems the best, and their foundations with the best concrete. In the rat race to the future, those with hard hats may well outpace and outearn the people programming with Python.
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